Friday, October 5, 2012

#USDCAD Rocket Trade Setup

Have request with regards to doing a post-analysis on the trades I took. This week, I took many trades, but I think one of the ones that was a great winner was usdcad. This was especially true if I had held on more. Take note that I held my positions open even when non-farm payroll was released on both wednesday and friday.

Where was price at? Answer is simple. At a strong resistance. Notice the nice WR - price closes above strong resistance, but yet closes below immediately the next day. Notice the candlestick pattern - bearish engulfing pattern. A fibo drawn from the highest high to the lowest low shows that price is perched at Fib 2.

Let me share my thoughts on this. Doesn't H4 show an uptrend? A series of higher high and higher low? That is true, but notice how the second box (box starting on 13 Sep) did not close above the previous box high. This shows weakness. Effectively the out of the 4 recently boxes, only 1 is considered valid. The box that is valid is the box starting on 21 Sep.

Was not attentive so I did not manage to short it exactly where I wanted to. However, I still followed through my plan and shorted. You can see that price went down nicely.

Now, I believe finding good trades are easy. Question lies with managing them well enough to make money. So the question is now, have I taken profit? Or am I holding and preparing to fire more rockets?

Lets take a logical approach:

Given this chart, what do you think? 

Trading can be a very logical process. I like to call myself a begger in the market. I take whatever people (the market) gives me.

Hope this helps! Good luck with identifying killer setups :)

Currently score: 10-2

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